Terms & Conditions. Hide

Professional Advisers

Liontrust Blog

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

“Then come the wild weather, come sleet or come snow, we will stand by each other, however it blow.” – Simon Dach, German poet, 1605-1659

The above quote would seem to sum up most of the noises (but not all!  I recommend viewing the You Tube clip of Nigel Farage’s haranguing on November 24th) coming out of the EU with regard to the ongoing sovereign difficulties. But will it be enough? There are plenty of voices out there casting doubt.  

Liontrust Dealer's Blog - 29/11/2010

“The north wind shall blow…….”

Somehow the current blast of icy air that seems to have settled over this sceptred isle seems rather well timed, as the uncomfortably cold draughts whistle down the financial corridors of power. From a personal point of view I could have done without such freezing temperatures on Saturday, as I endured distinctly lukewarm performance from England’s rugby team at Twickenham. And the only minor warming feature to the day was having backed the Springboks at 5/2. I would rather have lost my money nonetheless and seen a cockle warming England win on such a bitter day!

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

More dollar watching

Without guidance from the US,Thursday night news flow centred on Asia and more sabre rattling in Korea:“Officials in North Korea have warned that they are on the brink of war with the South, as the United States and South Korea prepare to conduct a joint training exercise in the Yellow Sea”. The mining sector led the way down when Europe openedon Friday as more China tightening debate surfaced thanks to a failed bill auction for the first time since June,   “reflecting a shortage of cash at banks after policy makers raised their reserve requirements twice this month”.

With newsflow thin on the ground and a big two day rally, I was not surprised to see markets weaken over Friday morning as CDS spreads continued to widen at the periphery. By midday, the FTSE was languishing at 5600, down 1.7% but the standout across Europe was Spain with the IBEX down over 2%. A statement from the Russian finance ministry posted on Reuters could do little to help the UK banks.“Russian finance minister says Russian banks, including VTB, interested in buying stakes in major UK financials”.Lloyds,for example, wasdown 5% by mi

With newsflow thin on the ground and a big two day rally, I was not surprised to see markets weaken over Friday morning as CDS spreads continued to widen at the periphery. By midday, the FTSE was languishing at 5600, down 1.7% but the standout across Europe was Spain with the IBEX down over 2%. A statement from the Russian finance ministry posted on Reuters could do little to help the UK banks.“Russian finance minister says Russian banks, including VTB, interested in buying stakes in major UK financials”.Lloyds,for example, wasdown 5% by midd

Liontrust Dealer's Blog - 25/11/2010

Apologies

The title of my last blog was “bad things come in threes” in reference to tensions in Korea, Irish sovereign debt problems andChinese tightening.  Unfortunately it appears to have been some sort of premonition as Prior, Broad & Swann were dismissed by Peter Siddle in the space of 3 balls.  A sales trader friend blames himself as the demoralising episode occurred seconds after he turned on the radio during his journey to work and I’m laying the blame squarely at his feet. His sends his apologies. 

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

“Wider still and wider…..”

You know how a tune can get into your head sometimes! It could be a catchy, irritating number by Cheryl Cole that just seems to get stuck or, as has been the case for me in the last few days, an altogether more acceptable number. A C Benson’s lyrics set to the music of Edward Elgar form the great British patriotic classic “Land of Hope and Glory”. It has been going round and round in my head on and off for the past ten days or so. I think that what initially triggered it was being at Twickenham to see England hand out a proper, grown-up pasting to Australia.  

Liontrust Dealer's Blog - 23/11/2010

“Bad things come in threes”

The US initially moved lower post our close but managed to stage a late rally to finish up c 0.5% from where we shut up shop. Debate continued to rage over Ireland as Brian Cowen announced he will seek to dissolve the lower house (the Dáil) after the current budgetary process is complete, with a four-year plan due to be presented this week. He commented any further delay to the budget would “weaken the country’s position”. It sounds like the Irish people will have a vote in the new year and any new government is going to have their work cut out. Irish 5yr CDS widened 24 points to 532bps on the news.

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

“Irish Sea, Fastnet, Shannon. Southeast gale 8 veering South 6 or 7, thundery showers, poor, moderate later. Biscay, Trafalgar. Southwest gale 8 to storm 10, veering west, severe gale 9 to violent storm 11. Rain, then squally showers. Poor.”

So Ireland have bowed to the inevitable and agreed to accept the bail-out. No surprise there. It was all very well for them to say that they had funding until the middle of next year, but a run on their banks, which could have happened at any time, would have made that fact irrelevant and obsolete. The outstanding question for the Irish is: at what price? What will happen to their very low corporate tax rate, on which they depend to help try to kick start economic growth? More of that in coming days. And what of the rest of Europe?  

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

On My Soapbox……

For us last week's peripheral meltdown is all the proof we need that the Western World remains on life support and we'll periodically revisit such problems time and time again over the next few years. Eventually bigger entities than Irish banks will likely be the target. For now, assuming another band aid is used over the next week or so for said Irish banks, we should have a reasonably smooth year-end (famous last words) as the data, the technicals and liquidity seem supportive. However all will change if the EU unexpectedly disappoint or if Treasuries melt down.

The above statement was contained within the morning note that I received this morning from a highly respected strategist and should, in my opinion, this should be kept pretty close to the front of investor’s minds over the course of the next few months. It is the nature of markets these days that memories become short and sentiment tends to focus on one issue at a time, be it QE one week, sovereign debt the next……..and who knows what next week? But sovereign debt is and will be, for the foreseeable future, THE issue. It will impinge on every aspect of economic management, political manoeuvrings, as well as corporate and personal decision making. Investors should never forget that when the issue seems out of sight, it should never be out of mind. Here endeth the sermon!!

Liontrust Dealer's Blog - 18/11/2010

“Bring it to life”

The more eagle eyed among you, who pay attention to advertisements, will recognise the slogan above as belonging to the current Guinness campaign. Like the shamrock, the harp or the leprechaun, Guinness has long been regarded as a symbol of Ireland. First brewed in Dublin's St James' Gate in the 1770s, the popular beverage is entangled with the concept of Irish identity and Irish lifestyle. As the country's national drink, Guinness is the best-selling alcoholic drink in Ireland, where sales are worth around €2 billion annually. The Irish brand is also one of the nation's most successful international exports: Guinness is now sold in over 150 countries and an estimated ten million glasses of 'The Black Stuff' are enjoyed every day around the world (a few of them by me and Mr Tonge!). The famous Irish beverage is a magnet for international tourists in Ireland, who come in droves to the Guinness visitor centre in Dublin, making the company's Storehouse the city's top tourist attraction with over a million visitors a year. If only the rest of the Irish economy looked so robust.

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

Yesterday Global markets suffered bouts of profit taking thanks to continued Chinese inflation fears, more in-fighting/differences of opinion over QE and worries over Ireland (no resolution yet, but only a matter of time I think). US markets, however, did most of their falling on the open, with the S&P only down 0.06% post our departure (closing down 1.6%).  

Pages: 123NextReturn Top

Disclaimer

Any opinions expressed should not be construed as advice for investment in any [product or] security mentioned or which may form the underlying content of any topics discussed in this blog.  The information and opinions provided in this blog take no account of the investors’ individual circumstances and should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision.   Any opinions or information provided has been based on sources we believe to be reliable at the time of this blog’s preparation: no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of such information.  Neither Liontrust, nor any of its partners, employees, representatives or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of our research or its contents.

Liontrust, its partners and/or employees may have had, have or will have positions in the securities (or related financial instruments) which are those referred to, or those underlying the content discussed in this blog.

Any individual who chooses to invest in any securities should do so with caution. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk; you may lose some or all of the money that is invested.  Always research your own investments and consult with a regulated investment advisor or licensed stock broker before investing.

Shares in companies referred to may be relatively illiquid and hard to trade, therefore riskier than other investments and there could be a large bid/offer spread, so if you need to sell soon after you’ve bought, you might get less back than you paid. This can make them riskier than other investments.