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Liontrust Dealer's Blog - 23/12/2010

You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus – Warren Buffett

Matt and I had hung up our blog boots for Christmas as the markets moved into full-on seasonal torpor, but something crossed my frontal lobe today that has stirred me into action.  I would hazard a guess that the catalyst for such action is something that you, dear reader, have never previously encountered. Reproduced with permission from the American Association of Investors, I give you the AAII US Investor Sentiment Bullish Readings! It has oft been said that by following the herd up the road you greatly increase your chances of ending up in the abattoir or that, if you are a lemming, you might fall off a cliff.

Liontrust Dealer's Blog - 20/12/2010

Whither the weather

Post our departure on Friday US markets initially had a go at rallying thanks to better tech earnings before succumbing to renewed Eurozone debt wobbles, closing up a tad. If you take a look back on my blog (12/08) you’ll see the US Banks Index broke its 200 day moving average on that day and it’s managed to hold it since, with the sector on Friday doing most of the running despite an article in the Wall Street Journal that compared the US municipal bond markets with the Eurozone (strong states debt outperforming weak states) and a rather alarmist piece on Bloomberg saying France’s AAA rating is at risk

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 17/12/2010

A Sentimental Friday

Stocks hit two year closing highs in the US post our departure following generally upbeat eco data andnews that Fedex think the global economic recovery is becoming more balanced, improving in Europe andthe US. Other company news also cheered as Oracle andAccenture delivered solid numbers combined with positive outlook statements regarding a meaningful consumer recovery andRIMM topped analyst forecasts. Asian markets were a little subdued as Chinese tightening continues to dampen sentiment andthe official website of North Korea (uriminzokkiri.com) said war in the peninsular is only a matter of time adding it would involve nuclear weapons. 

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

Fodder for the bulls

As the wind-down to Christmas continues and news flow, macro and micro, becomes more and more scarce, I will concentrate today on the predictions of a selection of our brokers for where various markets/currencies/commodities will finish next year. With grateful thanks to godson Tom, who helped in compiling the data, please open the blog for the numbers table... 

Liontrust Dealer's Blog - 15/12/2010

Mixed Signals

Intra-day the S&P touched it’s high for the year once again, but as per Monday a final hour sell-off occurred with the Index finally closing up a measly 0.09%. The catalyst sighted for the sell off was the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which were broadly in line with those in November albeit with slightly altered language which, although sounding a tab more constructive for the economy, emphasised the still weak labour picture;

November:“[T]he pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow.”

December: “[T]he economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment.”

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

Bond yields…..up, up and away

A final-hour pullback saw the S&P 500 close unchanged after having reached an intraday high of 1246.7 (+0.5%). Far Eastern markets were up small on the day, but continuing to be desperately quiet.  

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

“And the winner of X-Factor is.… ITV”

Although US markets continued to push on post our close Friday (the giant bellwether GE up 3.4% thanks to a 16.7% dividend increase), the main overnight news has come from China and to put in bluntly the economy is still motoring. Industrial output rose 13.3% (up from 13.1% in October), PPI rose 6.1% (up from 5% in October), CPI rose 5.1% (up from 4.4% in October) and urban investment in the Jan-Nov period leapt almost 25%. The consequence of all this was supposed to be a rate hike but one didn’t materialise (though the bank reserve ratio requirement was put up 50bps on Friday). 

Liontrust Dealer's Blog - 10/12/2010

Ssssssshhhhhh…… market sleeping”

A quiet end to a quiet week. It is by no means unusual for Friday mornings to start slowly (possibly as a result of over-indulgence on Thursday evening!), but Fridays in December are invariably extremely torpid. True to form, today was somnolent, with volumes in London about 30% below the average figure over the last month. 

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

Go Go Youku

I detected a slight undertone technical bullishness in overnight markets, though the moves in the indices were not that large.

Liontrust Dealer's Blog

“Very interesting, Mr Bond”

As you can see from the graph below, the yield on the US ten year government bond has risen very sharply over the past two months. It reached an intraday low of 2.34% on October 12thand has risen since to the current 3.27%, a rise of more than 35% in less than two months.  

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