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Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 31/08/2011

“Every political good carried to the extreme must be productive ofevil” – Mary Shelley, Author, born August 30th 1797 died February 1st 1851.

Post our departure US markets moved on a tad with the S&P putting on a further 0.27% to close up 0.24%. They shook off an early pullback which appeared to be driven by the drop in consumer confidence, reportedly thanks to some dovish-leaning monetary policy comments  in the August meeting FOMC minutes.

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 30/08/2011

“The difference between tax avoidance and tax evasion is the thickness of a prison wall.” – Denis Healey, former Labour Chancellor of the Exchequer, born August 30th 1917.

A combination of Hurricane Irene not devastating New York, as well as hopes that QE is more likely with Bernanke adding a day to the Fed’s September meeting (well, he didn’t say anything else!), appears to have settled markets. For me, the most interesting part of Bernanke’s speech was tucked away towards the end and it arrived in the shape of a massive rebuke to the politicians....  (cont'd)

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 26/08/2011

“The United States is the richest, and, both actually and potentially, the most powerful state on the globe. She has much to give to the world; indeed, to her hands is chiefly entrusted the shaping of the future. If democracy in the broadest and truest sense is to survive, it will be mainly because of her guardianship” - John Buchan, 1st Baron Tweedsmuir, Scottish novelist andhistorian who served as Governer General of Canada, born 26th August 1875 – died 11 Feb 1940.

Starting the blog before Ben Bernanke opens his mouth today at 3pm is fraught with danger, I could find myself doing a hasty re-write, anyway lets crack on. Overnight markets remaind under pressure post our departure with the S&P falling a futher 0.74% as renewed concerns surrounding Europe anda rumoured downgrade for Germany hurt sentiment.

Liontrust Fund Manager's Roar: James Inglis-Jones - 26/08/2011

Europe: Finding Opportunities for Growth

Prior to the fall in stock markets that began in July but gained dramatic momentum in August, we were cautious about equities in general. This was because of the elevated valuation in markets as measured by book value and normalised earnings as well as the difficult macroeconomic backdrop, notably the developed world struggling to cope with the high levels of national indebtedness.

Liontrust Fund Manager's Roar: Anthony Cross - 26/08/2011

UK: Keep Calm and Carry On

August has traditionally been the time to recharge your batteries and tend to those administrative tasks you had neglected over the previous few months. This year, however, people’s attentions have been transfixed by an unprecedented number of dramatic economic and political events across the world, from the downgrading of the US’ credit rating, the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the shocking events in Libya, Syria, Somalia, Norway and elsewhere and the riots across England. 

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 25/08/2011

“I admit I'm being paid well, but it's no more than I deserve. After all, I've been screwed more times than a hooker.” Sir Thomas Sean Connery, the original (and best) James Bond, born August 25th 1930

Curiouser and curiouser… as Alice said! Equities have had a very feisty week (S&P +4.8%, FTSE +3.8% at 9 am today, Eurostoxx 600 +3.9% also at 9 am), initially on expectations that the Ben Bernank would pull a big and beautiful rabbit out of his hat tomorrow and then, once these expectations had been somewhat dimmed, on better macro data yesterday…whilst conveniently forgetting the awful data from earlier in the week!  

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 24/08/2011

“The objects of the present life fill the human eye with a false magnification because of their immediacy” – William Wilberforce, British politician, philanthropist and leader of the movement to abolish the slave trade, born August 24rd 1759 – died 29 July 1833.

It was quite a day in the US yesterday. Markets moved strongly higher post our departure with the Dow +1.7%, S&P +1.98% and Nasdaq +2.54% all closing near their highs. Reading the overnight roundup notes this morning I’ve compiled a list of reasons given and these included; the FDIC's problem list of US banks shrinking in Q2 for the first time since 2006, better Chinese and German manufacturing data, speculation of further FED stimulus at Jackson Hole, switching from outperforming defensive into cyclical stocks, support for austerity in France from the unions, an asset allocation trade from bonds into equities, a rumoured ban on short selling, the lacklustre Richmond Fed survey (and recent other bearish data) forcing the FED’s hand and finally good old short covering.

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 23/08/2011

“Marriage is like the Middle East, isn’t it? There’s no solution”. Willy Russell, British playwright, author and composer, born August 23rd 1947, best known for EducatingRita and Blood Brothers.

Despite Wall Street giving all its early gains back equities across the Far East and Europe were in fine fettle again this morning, for reasons largely beyond me! It is particularly interesting to note the divergence in performance recently between equities and credit.  

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 22/08/2011

“When placed in command - take charge” – General Herbert Norman Schwarzkopf, commander of the Coalition Forces in the Persian Gulf War of 1991, born 22 August 1934.

Europe could probably do with a leader who has the authority to take charge of the situation a-la Stormin’ Norman (aka The Bear) however unlike the United States, Europe is a disparate region of 50 or so States (EU has 27) with different languages, economies and climates and has no such central commander. What we do have is Angela Merkel who, as current Chancellor of Germany, is in charge of the most powerful economic force in the Eurozone and her comments matter. It was therefore rather disappointing to read this morning that she has rejected the Eurobondas a solution to the current crisis despite the market crying out for closer economic and political union

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 19/08/2011

“The price of doing the same old thing is far higher than the price of change.” – William Jefferson Clinton, 42nd President of the United States, born August 19th 1946

Much of the focus overnight has been, not surprisingly, on the dreadful number from the Philly Fed yesterday. As I mentioned yesterday, whenever the number has been worse than -30, the US economy has always been in recession.

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