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Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 22/12/2011

“186mph is the fastest I've driven - at 4.30am on the Tring bypass in a Ford GT40, naked.” Noel Edmonds (honestly!!!), English TV broadcaster and former DJ, born December 22nd 1948.

Of all the quotes we have featured over the past year and a bit, I can say with complete confidence that today’s is the most bizarre! Noel Edmonds? I would wager the GDP of Greece, Spain and Italy that none of your family members around the turkey on Christmas Day would pin that name to the above quote…..

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 21/12/2011

A sincere diplomat is like dry water or wooden iron” – Joseph Stalin, former Premier of the Soviet  Union, December 21st 1879 – 5 March 1953

Post our departure markets remained in excellent heart & the rally continued across every sector, with the S&P finally coming to rest up 2.98%. The exuberance may have been caused by the rapid approaching of a large man in red suit, with a big white bushy beard, or possibly thanks to the better data & excellent Spanish bond auction as the market chose to look past heightened uncertainty surrounding an extension of the US payroll tax cut, (the Washington research team at Bernstein still think they’ll do a deal). One thing worth noting post the close was a numbers miss from giant Oracle, which should give all those long of tech names (very crowded trade in the US apparently) & even those long the market pause for though..this doesn’t happen very often;

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 20/12/2011

“People have the power to redeem the work of fools.” Patti Smith, American singer/songwriter, known as the “Godmother of Punk”, born December 20th 1946.

US equities continued to drift lower post our departure finishing lower on the day. In the last hour of trading the move intensified and markets closed near their lows. Asian stocks rebounded from a three- week low as South Korean shares pared yesterday’s losses.

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 19/12/2011

“Whatever else may divide us, Europe is our common home; a common fate has linked us through the centuries, and it continues to link us today” – Leonid I. Brezhnev, Russian statesman, December 19th 1906 – 10th November 1982

US markets sold off post our departure (the S&P dropped c 0.4%) with commentary suggesting the sell-off was more a function of a lack-of-explanation for the preceding bounce rather than the negative headlines from Fitch who lowered France’s rating outlook (though it affirmed its triple-A rating) & put the ratings of Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland & Cyprus on review for downgrade;

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 16/12/2011

“The higher the building, the lower the morals.” Sir Noel Coward, English playwright, December 16th 1899 – March 26th 1973

Wall Street gave back a little ground after our close yesterday, following the statement from IMF boss Christine Lagarde that stoked fears that the debt crisis is worsening and that the world faces threats akin to the 1930s Great Depression. Markets adopted a pretty sanguine view of a downgrade from Fitch to the ratings of a number of banks, including Bank of America, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS.

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 15/12/2011

“If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.” –John Paul Getty, famously miserly American businessman (worth $1.2bn in 1966), Dec 15 1892 – 6 Jun 1976.

So what’s up with Gold? The yellow metal peaked intraday at $1921.15 on 6th September and now (62 days later), it’s trading at $1588 (per troy ounce) some 17% lower despite the situation in the Eurozone & global economy arguably* being a lot worse than it was back when Gold was at its peak (*back then we had the expectation of a solution). The problem began two days ago when investors been piling into the Dollar (the worlds safe haven currency) post the recent FOMC meeting where the FED gave no indication they plan any further quantitative easing.  

Liontrust Dealer's Blog - 14/12/2011

“After a great misery for mankind, an even greater approaches.  The great cycle of the centuries renewed, it will rain blood, milk, famine, war, disease.  In the sky will be seen a great fire dragging a trail of sparks”  - Nostradamus, born 14thDecember 1503

The above from Nostradamus, from his Quatrain II.46, apparently predicts the end of the world on 12 December 2012, which is the last date in the Mayan long-form calendar (“the great cycle of the centuries renewed”). The apparent destruction will be caused by a huge comet (“in the sky will be seen a great fire dragging a trail of sparks”). He does, at least, agree with some of the other predictions (notably Jim Reid’s yesterday) that after 2011 (“after a great misery for mankind”), 2012 is likely to be even worse (“an even greater approaches”). Staying briefly of prophecies, a few more hit the inbox this morning including RBS top themes and trades for 2012, Barcap’s equity strategy outlook for 2012 & a piece from Natixis which included three bets for the coming decade. Their executive summaries are include below for your perusal.

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 13/12/2011

It doesn't matter so much where the material comes from, as long as it's good” –Steve Buscemi, American actor, born 13th December 1957

US markets suffered the very same woes as our trading day, however they did managed to rally a tad post our departure (with the S&P putting on 3 points!) in what was described as a ‘quiet, low  volume Monday’. As we heard yesterday resurgent Eurozone concerns & an Intel downward revision in Q4 guidance weighed on sentiment, while all the rating agencies also put out some clearly bearish statements (below). One possible bull-point (which a few traders pointed out this morning) was the sharp sell-off in the VIX index into the close which may indicate option traders expect a short term bounce in the market, especially given option expiry this week. 

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 12/12/2011

“One must always hope when one is desperate, and doubt when one hopes.”Gustave Flaubert, French writer, most notably of Madame Bovary, December 12th 1821 – May 8th 1880

The papers were, predictably enough, full of the consequences of the fall-out from the European summit. As I mentioned last week, recent history suggests you buy the Euro/risk assets in the run-up to these big summits and sell the event. One trading day after the event , this looks to be a reasonable call again……

The summary below from Citigroup of the major summit developments might make it easier to see the wood for the trees!

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 09/12/2011

“Only through curiosity can we discover opportunities, and only by gambling can we take advantage of them.” Clarence Frank Birdseye II, founder of the modern frozen food industry, December 9th 1886 – October 7th 1956.

After Draghi masterful performance yesterday in passing the parcel fairly and squarely back into the hands of the EU leaders, there was much burning of midnight oil overnight. The leaders managed by 5 o’clock this morning to agree a new “fiscal compact” for the Eurozone, without the participation of the UK or Hungary.  

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