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Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 29/02/2012

“Give me a laundry-list and I'll set it to music.” Gioachino Rossini, Italian composer, best known for operas The Barber of Deville and William Tell, February 29th 1792 – November 13th 1868

Summary

  • Wall Street trades sideways after we closed yesterday
  • Far East markets pretty robust with decent macro numbers pointing to growth
  • Europe opens in good heart
  • LTRO comes in at EUR529.5 billion
  • Notable weakness in Portuguese bond market, no obvious reason………yet
  • Bernanke says nothing about further QE in testimony to Congress
  • Risk assets wobble
  • Equities, metals, commodities, oil all head south
  • FTSE ends lower by almost 1%
  • Europe down, but not by as much
  • S&P down by 0.42% as pulled the shutters down

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 28/02/12

“A single conversation across the table with a wise man is better than ten years mere study of books.” Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, American poet, February 27th 1807 – March 24th 1882

Summary

  • Quiet session on Wall Street
  • Far East generally firmer
  • Greece credit rating cut to “Selective Default”
  • Europe opens stronger (but very light volumes)
  • Italian bond auction goes well
  • Consensus on LTRO (tomorrow) improving
  • Mixed European confidence data
  • Very weak US orders data, but could be misleading?
  • Extremely US strong consumer confidence numbers and Richmond Fed also solid
  • Market end a see-saw day in positive territory, FTSE by 0.21%, Europe by a tad more and the S&P by 0.35% as we packed up

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 27/02/2012

“The best thing one can do when it's raining is to let it rain” – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, American poet, Feb 27th 1807 – March 24th 1882

Summary

  • Wall Street closes slightly lower, volumes low
  • Oil prices starting to worry a bit
  • World Bank / Development Research Centre predict slowing Chinese growth
  • Japanese exporters either fall or rally depending on when you ask
  • China up on monetary easing hopes, Hong Kong down on comments from IMF head (or more like nothing)
  • G20 tells Germany to pony up more cash if they want further IMF help
  • Talk about Wednesday’s LTRO €500bn the forecast
  • Greek PSI details out
  • Buffet on the prowl
  • HSBC fall on their numbers
  • Bond auctions go fine
  • Alarm over German sausage prices
  • German lower house have just approved bailout
  • Markets rally from their lows to close down a tad, no real harm done

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 24/02/2012

“I was worth over $1,000,000 when I was 23, and over $10,000,000 when I was 24, and over $100,000,000 when I was 25, and it wasn’t that important because I never did it for the money.” Steve Jobs, co-founder, chairman and CEO of Apple, February 24th 1955 – October 5th 2011

Summary

  • Wall Street closes slightly higher than when we went home yesterday
  • Asian markets in fine fettle, led by China
  • Europe opens better
  • UK and German Q4 GDP in line with expectations
  • Confusing numbers from Lloyds
  • Markets drift easier until………
  • …..A strong University of Michigan confidence survey

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 23/02/2012

“Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes her laws” – Mayer Amschel Rothschild, founder of the Rothschild family international banking dynasty, 23rd Feb 1744 – 19 Sept 1812

Summary

  • Drifty markets overnight thanks to weak PMI, big revision in existing home sales
  • Obama unveils headline grabbing tax cut plan
  • Wen may target GDP growth of sub 8%
  • Japanese market up on “buyers”
  • More tension with Iran, oil up again
  • Greece default highly like in the near term according to Fitch
  • Germany says €500bn is big enough for ESM
  • Moody’s put financials on review for possible downgrade
  • Osbourne/Azumi urge US to rewrite Volker rule
  • German IFO points to growth
  • Eurozone to contract by 0.3% this year say EU
  • Eurozone to contract by 0.5% this year say DB
  • Lots of numbers out again
  • Markets stuck in range 

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 22/02/2012

“We never fail when we try to do our duty, we always fail when we neglect to do it.” Robert Baden-Powell, founder of the Scout Movement, 22nd February 1857 – 8th January 1941

Summary

  • Wall Street gives up a little ground post our close
  • Far East markets strong
  • Chinese PMI a tad weak…….
  • …….but Europe generally worse, particularly relative to expectations…..
  • …….which hit European markets
  • UK housing data worse than expected
  • UK rallied, closing down by 0.2%
  • Europe didn’t!
  • US lower by 0.25% as we pulled stumps

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 21/02/12

“A tremendous number of people in America work very hard at something that bores them. Even a rich man thinks he has to go down to the office every day. Not because he likes it but because he can't think of anything else to do. “– Wystan Hugh Auden, Anglo-American poet, 21 Feb 1907 – 29 Sept 1973

Summary

  • US closed
  • Greek deal announced 3am:
    1. €130BN bailout – 120.5% debt-GDP ratio by 2020
    2. Troika office in Athens to oversee policies
    3. PSI 53% haircut but taking into account rates on new bond, c70% NPV
    4. ECB ‘profits’ on Greek bonds back to Greece
    5. Escrow account
    6. Loan rates lowered
    7. Greek constitution to be changed to prioritise debt payment
  • Market reaction lacklustre in Asia
  • Xiahua news agency, China to practise prudent monetary policy in 2012
  • Oil near 9 month highs (never great for global growth)
  • Numbers generally mixed, UK deficit number looked good
  • Afternoon scant data, trading a bit flat, Greek market weakened
  • DB: easy money has been made, though still see a bit of upside
  • Feels like still due a pullback...travel & arrive, markets down not drastically. 

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 20/02/2012

The fame you earn has a different taste from the fame that is forced upon you.” Gloria Vanderbilt, American artist, jeans designer, born February 20th 1924

Summary

  • Wall Street rallies post our departure on Friday
  • China central bank cut banks’ RRR
  • Prompts decent move up in Asian markets, although some ground given back by close
  • Europe opens on a firm footing ahead of EU summit
  • US closed for Presidents Day
  • UK and Europe see better volume than many expected
  • Markets tread water after rally in first two hours of trading
  • FTSE ends 0.68% higher
  • European markets generally up 1% or more (though Switzerland almost flat on the day)

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 17/02/2012

“Most of my contemporaries at school entered the World of Business, the logical destiny of bores – Barry Humphries, Australian Entertainer, born Feb 17th 1934

Summary

  • US back on the rally tack, 6 month high
  • ECB proposes bond-swap rinky dink
  • Big jump in Microsoft
  • Asia rallies, Chinese loan growth slows, Japan ready with the printing press
  • Greek optimism a deal to be signed Monday
  • Option expiry pushes us higher
  • More numbers, better on the whole today
  • Good UK retail sales
  • US CPI looked fine
  • More Greek chat to finish
  • FTSE up a tad, Europe rallies >1% in most markets.
  • No US Monday. 

Liontrust Dealer's Roar - 16/02/2012

“The best way to listen to an album is to put it on, get some Moet, lay back with your boys, and kick it” – Tracy Marrow a.k.a Ice T, American rapper, born 16th Feb 1958

Summary

  • US falls post our departure as Apple reverses engine
  • FOMC minutes don’t suggest QE3 is imminent
  • Oil up as Iran reported to stop shipments to Europe
  • Volumes pick-up on the sell-off
  • Asia down more delay talk surrounding Greek bailout
  • More mixed messages on Greece as Europe opens
  • Spain lifts ban on shorting financials
  • Moody’s puts raft of financials on review for downgrade
  • Spain / France sell some debt, former slightly worse, latter better
  • Loads of numbers
  • GM numbers, Europe terrible, US on fire
  • US housing starts ok
  • Philly Fed better
  • Job situation keeps on improving
  • Bit of fun from fragrance manufacturing Givaudan
  • Market rallies all day long, ends down a tad.

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Any opinions expressed should not be construed as advice for investment in any [product or] security mentioned or which may form the underlying content of any topics discussed in this blog.  The information and opinions provided in this blog take no account of the investors’ individual circumstances and should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision.   Any opinions or information provided has been based on sources we believe to be reliable at the time of this blog’s preparation: no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of such information.  Neither Liontrust, nor any of its partners, employees, representatives or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of our research or its contents.

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