“We never fail when we try to do our duty, we always fail when we neglect to do it.” Robert Baden-Powell, founder of the Scout Movement, 22nd February 1857 – 8th January 1941
Summary
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Wall Street gives up a little ground post our close
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Far East markets strong
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Chinese PMI a tad weak…….
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…….but Europe generally worse, particularly relative to expectations…..
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…….which hit European markets
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UK housing data worse than expected
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UK rallied, closing down by 0.2%
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Europe didn’t!
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US lower by 0.25% as we pulled stumps
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“A tremendous number of people in America work very hard at something that bores them. Even a rich man thinks he has to go down to the office every day. Not because he likes it but because he can't think of anything else to do. “– Wystan Hugh Auden, Anglo-American poet, 21 Feb 1907 – 29 Sept 1973
Summary
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US closed
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Greek deal announced 3am:
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€130BN bailout – 120.5% debt-GDP ratio by 2020
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Troika office in Athens to oversee policies
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PSI 53% haircut but taking into account rates on new bond, c70% NPV
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ECB ‘profits’ on Greek bonds back to Greece
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Escrow account
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Loan rates lowered
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Greek constitution to be changed to prioritise debt payment
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Market reaction lacklustre in Asia
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Xiahua news agency, China to practise prudent monetary policy in 2012
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Oil near 9 month highs (never great for global growth)
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Numbers generally mixed, UK deficit number looked good
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Afternoon scant data, trading a bit flat, Greek market weakened
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DB: easy money has been made, though still see a bit of upside
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Feels like still due a pullback...travel & arrive, markets down not drastically.
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The fame you earn has a different taste from the fame that is forced upon you.” Gloria Vanderbilt, American artist, jeans designer, born February 20th 1924
Summary
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Wall Street rallies post our departure on Friday
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China central bank cut banks’ RRR
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Prompts decent move up in Asian markets, although some ground given back by close
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Europe opens on a firm footing ahead of EU summit
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US closed for Presidents Day
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UK and Europe see better volume than many expected
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Markets tread water after rally in first two hours of trading
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FTSE ends 0.68% higher
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European markets generally up 1% or more (though Switzerland almost flat on the day)
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“Most of my contemporaries at school entered the World of Business, the logical destiny of bores” – Barry Humphries, Australian Entertainer, born Feb 17th 1934
Summary
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US back on the rally tack, 6 month high
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ECB proposes bond-swap rinky dink
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Big jump in Microsoft
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Asia rallies, Chinese loan growth slows, Japan ready with the printing press
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Greek optimism a deal to be signed Monday
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Option expiry pushes us higher
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More numbers, better on the whole today
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Good UK retail sales
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US CPI looked fine
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More Greek chat to finish
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FTSE up a tad, Europe rallies >1% in most markets.
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No US Monday.
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“The best way to listen to an album is to put it on, get some Moet, lay back with your boys, and kick it” – Tracy Marrow a.k.a Ice T, American rapper, born 16th Feb 1958
Summary
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US falls post our departure as Apple reverses engine
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FOMC minutes don’t suggest QE3 is imminent
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Oil up as Iran reported to stop shipments to Europe
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Volumes pick-up on the sell-off
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Asia down more delay talk surrounding Greek bailout
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More mixed messages on Greece as Europe opens
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Spain lifts ban on shorting financials
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Moody’s puts raft of financials on review for downgrade
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Spain / France sell some debt, former slightly worse, latter better
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Loads of numbers
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GM numbers, Europe terrible, US on fire
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US housing starts ok
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Philly Fed better
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Job situation keeps on improving
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Bit of fun from fragrance manufacturing Givaudan
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Market rallies all day long, ends down a tad.
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“Difficulties are just things to overcome, after all” – Sir Henry Ernest Shackleton, Anglo-Irish polar explorer, 15th Feb 1874 – 5th Jan 1922
Summary
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US rallies again post our departure thanks to big spike into the close as Samaris promises to sign letter
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Volumes light but increase on the spike
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State of California credit outlook raised
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Asian markets rally hard on apparent Chinese commitment to Eurozone
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Europe opens on FT story...Eurogroup now a phone conference as no letters arrive
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Bailout only buys time say Mediobanca, not a solution
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Eurozone GDP numbers pretty much as expected, France better, Germany worse, Italy in recession, Eurozone shrunk in Q4
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UK unemployment data mixed
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Portuguese bond auction, yield lower, bid-to-cover tops 10x
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Corporate results, lots of them!
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Empire Manufacturing & Factory Input prices in line really, forward looking components of former a tad weaker
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Few worrying headlines.
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Big Ex-Divs in FTSE take market down 0.13% as miners weigh but Eurostoxx up 0.6%
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“Life wouldn’t be worth living if you could buy confidence because the rich people would have it all and everybody else would… would have to make their own arrangements” – Kevin Keegan, former England manager, born 14thFeb 1951
Summary
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US rallies again post our departure, closes up 0.7% on low vols (apparently 24 times in the last 28 it has done that)
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Apple above $500, Obama targets rich in his budget
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BOJ unexpected increase asset purchase program & set 1% inflation target
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Moody’s downgrade Italy, Spain, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia, Malta
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Put UK & France on negative watch, Osborne reminds us austerity is required
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Der Speigel suggest Germans far from on board with the Greeks
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Macroeconomic imbalances rife in the EU suggests leaked report
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UK inflation shade lower, RICS still mildly negative
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German ZEW surprises to upside
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Decent peripheral bond auctions
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US numbers mixed
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Small down on the close, nothing done
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“I have made many serious statements - I just can't remember any of them. I guess they mustn't have been very important” – Oliver Reed, English actor, 13th Feb 1938 – 2 May 1999
Summary
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US rallies again post our departure
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Greek vote makes it through with some arm twisting & crowds take to the streets
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Still a few more hurdles on the deal yet, €325mn more cuts & promises from coalition leaders required
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S&P downgrades Italian financials
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Couple of stories on Chinese banks help them rally
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Japanese Q4 GDP misses
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Bloomberg Asia Pacific World up 0.5%
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Europe opens up
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Vodafone looking at Cable & Wireless Worldwide, few other numbers
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French shorting ban lifted..short French banks!
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Good Italian short-term debt auction..LTRO in action?
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Stockbrokers say buy stocks
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FTSE up 0.9%, Eurostoxx up 0.7%
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“As for the men in power, they are so anxious to establish the myth of infallibility that they do their utmost to ignore truth" – Boris Pasternak, Russian Novelist, 10th Feb 1890 -30th May 1960
Summary
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Markets up again overnight
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Greek deal hits the skids
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Asian markets weaker
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Chinese Imports data plunges but watch Lunar New Year
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European markets weaker
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French Industrial Production data worse, Italian better than expected
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Greeks to arrest anyone from Eurozone with a clipboard and a calculator
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University of Michigan confidence a tad weaker than expected
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Markets have a pretty big sell-off in the context of moves this year
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Watch Greek votes on Sunday, or Rugby possibly might be more interesting.
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“Time, that singular phenomenon, rules the excellence epitomised in the skilfulness of our saddlers, the meticulous precision of our watchmakers, the virtuosity of our engravers and the dedication to quality of all our craftspeople and designers. Without it, nothing lasting or beautiful could be brought into being. Because of it, our customers find in every object an invitation to a rare, suspended moment of inspired pleasure." - I kid you not, comments from this morning’s outlook statement from French high fashion chain Hermes.
Summary
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Groundhog day in US, but up from our close
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Cisco beat expectation post the close but have traded down
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Strong Chinese CPI ignored for now, weak Japanese machine tool orders
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Deluge of results in Europe, on the whole most are fine
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UK production data better than expected
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BOE rates on hold, another £50bn of QE as expected
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ECB rates on hold as expected
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GREEKS MAKE-UP
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Draghi confirms Greeks make up & warns of downside risks to growth
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Will accept wider range of collateral at next LTRO
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US jobless continues to fall
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Personally fancy we have a small pullback now based on today’s price movements.
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