Bullish predictions on electric cars too conservative

Neil Brown

Anyone forced to navigate treacherous roads this morning will appreciate ongoing developments in car safety and one of the industry’s largest suppliers has just predicted a major surge in electric vehicles in the years ahead.

French company Valeo offers one of the widest ranges of smart sensors and features for automated driving, including autonomous emergency braking (AEB). Speaking in the wake of its full-year results last week, Valeo chief executive Jacques Aschenbroich said at least 10% of all vehicles sold in 2025 will be electric, doubling the group’s 5-6% internal forecast last year.

Improving auto safety and Improving the efficiency of cars are key themes across our Liontrust Sustainable Future funds and we see this number as still on the conservative side given the drivers for change. One of our predictions is that 100% of new cars in Europe could have AEB by 2020 for example (plus 80% in the US and 50% in China), creating a €10bn market.

Electric cars currently account for less than 1% of global vehicle sales but manufacturers including Ford and Volkswagen have pledged billions in recent months to fast track programmes, with more stringent rules on CO2 emissions across Europe from 2021.

A number of German cities announced plans this week to ban diesel vehicles, with Stuttgart and Dusseldorf looking to set a precedent by removing older cars from zones worst affected by pollution. While there may be legal wrangling to come, analysts have said this could lead to similar action across Europe in the face of tightening regulations. 

This comes after Nissan recently predicted a turning point for car buyers in the middle of the next decade. The Japanese carmaker said prices of battery vehicles and traditional cars will draw level in 2025 and end the need for government subsidies that currently support the majority of electric car sales.


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Wednesday, February 28, 2018, 2:38 PM