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David Roberts

What to expect from bonds in 2019

There have been few safe havens in bonds in 2018. In a long read, David Roberts reviews 2018 and discusses prospects and opportunities for bond markets next year. Read more
David Roberts

Opportunity knocks in high yield

Why we have tripled our high yield exposure in our Strategic Bond funds. Read more
David Roberts

Why we continue to avoid Italy

Any investors shorting Italian government bonds will have suffered during September. David Roberts explains that while Italian debt will begin to look attractive again, he is yet to start investing. Read more
David Roberts

A change of tack for Super Mario

With cracks starting to appear in core European debt, David Roberts reflects on an apparent change of tone for ECB President Mario Draghi Read more
David Roberts

10 alternative trades I could have done in summer

Following on from revealing ten potential summer trades last month, David Roberts has gone back to his ideas book to find ten further opportunities for the more risk tolerant bond investors out there. Read more
David Roberts

Trio of concerns start to bite

With markets growing jittery as QE fears, Italian debt worries and emerging market selloffs start to bite, David Roberts outlines his current thinking. Read more
David Roberts

10 potential summer trades for bond investors

The great advantage for active bond investors is that rates cycles are messed up at present and differentials between major markets are extreme. David Roberts highlights 10 potential trades for bond investors in the current market environment. Read more
David Roberts

Why I remain bearish on gilts (despite supportive data)

As weak headline data in the UK continue to support gilts, David Roberts explains why he is reluctant to invest in the asset class and predicts more turbulence to come for all things British as Brexit rumbles on. Read more
David Roberts

Trade, Italy and QE unwind will remain key in second half of 2018

After a tough first half for most asset classes (apart from US tech stocks and oil), David Roberts looks at prospects for the rest of 2018. Read more
David Roberts

How to make money from bonds in a falling market

With government bonds expensive against long-run averages and policy moving back towards ‘old normal’ territory, investors are understandably asking how to make money from bonds. David Roberts outlines his current strategy. Read more
David Roberts

Mario – super once more?

Still dovish, or sharp talons and a clawed beak? David Roberts runs the rule over last week’s ECB announcement, including what he sees as a mistaken promise not to hike interest rates until late next year (at the earliest). Read more
David Roberts

Where next for Italian bonds?

David Roberts considers the prospects for Italian bonds over the next few months: will the ECB step in – and potentially help the Eurosceptics looking to form a government – at a 2.5% yield? Read more
David Roberts

Assessing risk/reward in Argentina and Italy

David Roberts assesses risk versus reward in Argentina as it calls in the IMF, and Italy, where a summer election looks increasingly likely. Read more
David Roberts

A return to the old normal?

With no action from the Federal Reserve overnight, commentators are suggesting it might be behind the curve and starting to take a risk with inflation. David Roberts considers early market reaction to the Fed’s hold. Read more
David Roberts

Italian politics – a renewed threat to the Goldilocks scenario?

David Roberts comments on current election turmoil in Italy – is this a renewed threat to the Goldilocks scenario? Read more
David Roberts

What do 3% US bond yields mean for investors?

With US 10-year bond yields breaching the 3% level today for the first time since 2014, David Roberts examines what this means for fixed income markets. Read more
David Roberts

Brexit caution should not delay rate hikes

Yesterday’s comments from Mark Carney suggest an interest rate hike in May is not a done deal. David Roberts argues that with ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Brexit scenarios both ultimately resulting in inflation, rates need to rise. Read more
David Roberts

Trump trumps Italy?

David Roberts considers how Donald Trump’s trade war threats and a troubled Italian election could affect bond markets. Read more
David Roberts

What the new Fed Chair means for bond markets

Jerome Powell has signalled that the US central bank is likely to raise rates by another 1% during 2018. In light of this, David Roberts outlines his core views on bond markets. Read more
David Roberts

They think it’s all over, it isn’t yet

Following the yield curve flattening aggressively in January 2018, we have seen a “bear-steepener”: all bonds falling in price and longer dated ones suffering more. David Roberts explains what this might mean for investors. Read more
David Roberts

Finding relative value in bonds (or what to do when the world is against you)

Investors may believe the general level of prices in fixed income markets look a bit steep but David Roberts highlights three of the “macro” imbalances that he believes they can currently benefit from exploiting. Read more
David Roberts

Why markets have been pitched a curveball

The market falls of the past few days have been sparked by the worry that US interest rates will rise faster than expected. David Roberts, Head of Global Fixed Income at Liontrust, argues that the shape of the yield curve is in fact a superior forecaster and explains what it is telling us about the outlook for the economy. Read more