10 trades for the New Year (revisited after six turbulent months) David Roberts Back in January, David Roberts identified 10 high-quality sovereign trades. Nearly six months later and with the world living with Covid-19, David assesses how successful these trades have been and what they now say about the outlook for bond markets. Read more Look beyond the headline UK inflation figures David Roberts David Roberts argues that the UK inflation rate is not what it seems and that negative rates would be a potential horror story for the future. Read more L’Italia ostaggio delle agenzie rating David Roberts Con il suo debito pronto a bucare la soglia del 150 % nei prossimi mesi, David Roberts riflette sul come l’italia potrebbe evitare la bocciatura dalle agenzie di rating. Read more Italy in the lap of the rating gods David Roberts With Italy’s debt-to GDP likely to breach 150% in the coming months, David Roberts looks at whether the country’s BBB credit rating can survive. Read more Fed makes the same mistake again David Roberts Following the Fed’s second emergency cut in rates, David Roberts explains why the US central bank has badly mis-timed purported shock and awe. Read more Did they jump or were they pushed? David Roberts The Federal Reserve announced a surprise 50 basis point rate cut in response to the economic risks of coronavirus. However, David Roberts thinks that monetary policy is a spent force and aggressive fiscal spending may be required to avoid a recession. Read more What if the fiscal forecasts are wrong? David Roberts Projections of government spending and debt-to-GDP ratios are a key influence on bond yields. But what if they are wrong? David Roberts challenges some of these forecasts and highlights the bonds that could prove to be most mispriced. Read more An end to NIRP? David Roberts In January, Sweden’s government bonds moved back to zero after five years in negative territory. David Roberts analyses the impact of the NIRP and whether this might signal the end of negative interest paying bonds. Read more 10 fixed income trades for the New Year David Roberts Bond markets delivered strong returns last year against many people’s expectations. What does this mean for finding investment opportunities in 2020? David Roberts offers 10 potential ideas among high-quality sovereign debt. Read more Seven questions to ask a bond fund manager David Roberts These are dangerous times for investors in fixed income markets. David Roberts poses seven questions to ask bond fund managers to understand whether their portfolios are positioned to take advantage of the selective opportunities available and to avoid excessive risk in the market. Read more The Kiwi conundrum David Roberts What does a small, flightless bird have to do with markets? Read more 730 billion reasons to be cheerful David Roberts Following last night’s US rate cut, David Roberts explains why he thinks US policymakers are too pessimistic and reveals that consumers actually have 730 billion reasons to be cheerful”. Read more Sterling hits new lows - so why is everyone rushing to buy gilts? David Roberts As no-deal Brexit concerns push sterling down to fresh lows, David Roberts questions the logic behind the simultaneous rally in UK government bonds. Read more Central banks exacerbate extraordinary bond markets David Roberts Following another round of vacillating central bank meetings last week, David Roberts asks whether officials are managing monetary policy to support the economy or simply to boost the value of financial assets. Read more Has the Fed taken away the punchbowl? David Roberts Following interest rates being kept on hold last night, markets reacted strongly to the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, reiterating his view that the next move will be data dependent and they could go up or down. David Roberts looks at whether this changes anything for markets and investors. Read more Ten trades to put a spring in your step David Roberts Ahead of the first anniversary of the Liontrust Strategic Bond and GF Strategic Bond Funds, David Roberts outlines 10 trades where he sees opportunities for investors over the coming months. Read more Fed entering the danger zone David Roberts With further dovish noises from the Federal Reserve, David Roberts considers the possible consequences of kicking the policy normalisation can down the road. Read more Reconciling eurozone inflation and a German budget surplus David Roberts David Roberts suggests European Central Bank policy to keep interest rates at emergency levels – despite stable inflation – continues to distort markets. Read more Where is the emergency? David Roberts Following yesterday’s ECB meeting, David Roberts questions why emergency policy rates are needed when Super Mario has our back. Read more What to expect from bonds in 2019 David Roberts There have been few safe havens in bonds in 2018. In a long read, David Roberts reviews 2018 and discusses prospects and opportunities for bond markets next year. Read more Opportunity knocks in high yield David Roberts Why we have tripled our high yield exposure in our Strategic Bond funds. Read more Why we continue to avoid Italy David Roberts Any investors shorting Italian government bonds will have suffered during September. David Roberts explains that while Italian debt will begin to look attractive again, he is yet to start investing. Read more A change of tack for Super Mario David Roberts With cracks starting to appear in core European debt, David Roberts reflects on an apparent change of tone for ECB President Mario Draghi Read more 10 alternative trades I could have done in summer David Roberts Following on from revealing ten potential summer trades last month, David Roberts has gone back to his ideas book to find ten further opportunities for the more risk tolerant bond investors out there. Read more Trio of concerns start to bite David Roberts With markets growing jittery as QE fears, Italian debt worries and emerging market selloffs start to bite, David Roberts outlines his current thinking. Read more 10 potential summer trades for bond investors David Roberts The great advantage for active bond investors is that rates cycles are messed up at present and differentials between major markets are extreme. David Roberts highlights 10 potential trades for bond investors in the current market environment. Read more Why I remain bearish on gilts (despite supportive data) David Roberts As weak headline data in the UK continue to support gilts, David Roberts explains why he is reluctant to invest in the asset class and predicts more turbulence to come for all things British as Brexit rumbles on. Read more Trade, Italy and QE unwind will remain key in second half of 2018 David Roberts After a tough first half for most asset classes (apart from US tech stocks and oil), David Roberts looks at prospects for the rest of 2018. Read more How to make money from bonds in a falling market David Roberts With government bonds expensive against long-run averages and policy moving back towards ‘old normal’ territory, investors are understandably asking how to make money from bonds. David Roberts outlines his current strategy. Read more Mario – super once more? David Roberts Still dovish, or sharp talons and a clawed beak? David Roberts runs the rule over last week’s ECB announcement, including what he sees as a mistaken promise not to hike interest rates until late next year (at the earliest). Read more Where next for Italian bonds? David Roberts David Roberts considers the prospects for Italian bonds over the next few months: will the ECB step in – and potentially help the Eurosceptics looking to form a government – at a 2.5% yield? Read more Assessing risk/reward in Argentina and Italy David Roberts David Roberts assesses risk versus reward in Argentina as it calls in the IMF, and Italy, where a summer election looks increasingly likely. Read more A return to the old normal? David Roberts With no action from the Federal Reserve overnight, commentators are suggesting it might be behind the curve and starting to take a risk with inflation. David Roberts considers early market reaction to the Fed’s hold. Read more Italian politics – a renewed threat to the Goldilocks scenario? David Roberts David Roberts comments on current election turmoil in Italy – is this a renewed threat to the Goldilocks scenario? Read more What do 3% US bond yields mean for investors? David Roberts With US 10-year bond yields breaching the 3% level today for the first time since 2014, David Roberts examines what this means for fixed income markets. Read more Brexit caution should not delay rate hikes David Roberts Yesterday’s comments from Mark Carney suggest an interest rate hike in May is not a done deal. David Roberts argues that with ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Brexit scenarios both ultimately resulting in inflation, rates need to rise. Read more Trump trumps Italy? David Roberts David Roberts considers how Donald Trump’s trade war threats and a troubled Italian election could affect bond markets. Read more What the new Fed Chair means for bond markets David Roberts Jerome Powell has signalled that the US central bank is likely to raise rates by another 1% during 2018. In light of this, David Roberts outlines his core views on bond markets. Read more They think it’s all over, it isn’t yet David Roberts Following the yield curve flattening aggressively in January 2018, we have seen a “bear-steepener”: all bonds falling in price and longer dated ones suffering more. David Roberts explains what this might mean for investors. Read more Finding relative value in bonds (or what to do when the world is against you) David Roberts Investors may believe the general level of prices in fixed income markets look a bit steep but David Roberts highlights three of the “macro” imbalances that he believes they can currently benefit from exploiting. Read more Why markets have been pitched a curveball David Roberts The market falls of the past few days have been sparked by the worry that US interest rates will rise faster than expected. David Roberts, Head of Global Fixed Income at Liontrust, argues that the shape of the yield curve is in fact a superior forecaster and explains what it is telling us about the outlook for the economy. Read more